Football expert claims FIFA ASEAN Cup was set up for Indonesia to win

Football observer Akmal Marhali has sparked debates by suggesting that the recent 2026 FIFA ASEAN Cup was organized in a way that heavily favored a title victory for Indonesia.

Pointing to the group stage draw and the commercial appeal of the Indonesia national team, Marhali argued that the tournament was arranged for the host nation to emerge as champions, Suara reported.

Speaking on a podcast on Oct. 13, Marhali noted that the structural setup intentionally kept regional powerhouses apart.

"Neither Thailand nor Vietnam are in their group," he said. "And the other teams in that group are all ranked lower than Indonesia, aren't they?"

FIFA did not hold a draw ceremony for the group stage. Indonesia were placed in Group A alongside Malaysia, Singapore, and Bangladesh, who received an invitation to replace India following a late withdrawal. Group B consisted of Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Pakistan.

According to Marhali, successfully avoiding two of the region's strongest teams during the group phase provided a significant advantage for coach John Herdman’s squad in their pursuit of the title.

The observer also highlighted that the size of the Indonesian football market played a pivotal role in deciding how the tournament was structured. With a massive and passionate fan base, the Indonesia national team hold great appeal for spectators across Southeast Asia.

"Indonesia have to reach the final. If they don't, who would even want to watch the match?" Marhali added, emphasizing his belief that the tournament was created to cater to this market.

Indonesia won the 2026 FIFA ASEAN Cup by defeating Thailand in a highly dramatic final via a penalty shootout. On their journey to the title match, Herdman’s side advanced through the group stage with a 2-0 victory over Singapore, a 0-0 draw with Malaysia and a 9-2 thrashing of Bangladesh.

In the final group stage match, the referee sparked controversy by extending the second-half stoppage time from two minutes to seven, allowing Indonesia to score two more goals and overtake Malaysia as the group's top team to sdvance to the final.

Indonesia also gained a numerical advantage in the final following a red card issued to Thailand defender Nicholas Mickelson. During extra time, Thailand took a 2-1 lead but were held to a late draw, eventually losing the penalty shootout. The dramatic result secured Indonesia’s first-ever ASEAN Cup title, breaking a streak of six runner-up finishes in the tournament historically known as the Tiger Cup and AFF Cup.

Marhali is a well-known football observer and the coordinator for the "Save Our Soccer" (SOS) organization, which actively monitors and critiques governance issues within Indonesian football. He previously served as the executive director of the Tangerang Wolves and was a prominent member of the official fact-finding team investigating the tragic 2022 Kanjuruhan stadium disaster, in which a fatal crowd crush killed 135 people. He frequently speaks out on the operations of the Football Association of Indonesia (PSSI), officiating standards, and transparency in football management.